According to this site personal loan originations in 2021 likely totalled 17.9mil which if correct means Upstart's 1.3mil was probably closer to 7.2% of TAM. However, I guess when you consider they originated almost 500k in the last quarter alone they're probably close, if not at that 11% number now, even after adjusting for seasonality.
In terms of expansion, I've been wondering how easy international expansion would be for a company like Upstart? I've not heard them talk about this, but do you know if international expansion is even on the cards for a company like Upstart? I'm guessing there could be regulatory issues, but you would think their models should transfer quite well to similar international markets like Canada and the UK.
Finally, where would you say fair value is for the stock? Based on my projections I think $200 is fair, but it's a really hard one to model because on the one hand you have huge growth potential from auto loans mixed with lots of risks from partner concentration to regulatory risks and future competition. If they post strong beats on auto loan targets then my price target could easily double given the size of that market.
I also thought their commentary around the buyback plan was spot on. I've listened to a few earnings calls recently where management has been quite unapologetic about increased spending which hasn't been very reassuring in a market environment like this. The fact Upstart acknowledged the recent volatility in their stock and felt confident enough in the price to step in and buy suggests they both have investors backs and believe the stock is trading at an attractive valuation.
Thanks for sharing TransUnion research, that's helpful! I was referring to Upstart's estimate of $96 billion in originations (Slide 6 in their earnings presentation, https://ir.upstart.com/static-files/41587412-8d25-44f6-a79c-bc2ed0d1c7fe). The personal loans market is difficult to size, as such loans come in all shapes and forms (installment, payday, BNPL, etc) and there are different obligations towards reporting.
I haven't heard company management ever mentioning international expansion. They spoke about small-dollar loans, SME lending, and mortgages, and this pipeline stretched at least to 2023, so don't think international expansion is in the works.
I have experience of bringing consumer lenders to new markets, and should say it always felt like starting from scratch:) Yes, you have the technology, but you have zero data for scoring models, zero brand recognition, and quite often have to adjust your processes significantly (servicing, collection) to local specifics.
I honestly have no idea, where the stock price will be short-term. I am an investor, and my thinking is that as they expand into new subsegments (auto, mortgage, SME), they will start chipping off the market cap from legacy players (i.e. Ally Financial, Rocket Companies). However, lending is a hard and slow business and success in one segment does not guarantee success in another.
...and on the buyback -> yes, that was a very bold statement by Upstart team! :)
https://newsroom.transunion.com/transunion-forecasts-originations-to-non-prime-borrowers--will-continue-to-rise-for-many-credit-products-in-2022/
According to this site personal loan originations in 2021 likely totalled 17.9mil which if correct means Upstart's 1.3mil was probably closer to 7.2% of TAM. However, I guess when you consider they originated almost 500k in the last quarter alone they're probably close, if not at that 11% number now, even after adjusting for seasonality.
In terms of expansion, I've been wondering how easy international expansion would be for a company like Upstart? I've not heard them talk about this, but do you know if international expansion is even on the cards for a company like Upstart? I'm guessing there could be regulatory issues, but you would think their models should transfer quite well to similar international markets like Canada and the UK.
Finally, where would you say fair value is for the stock? Based on my projections I think $200 is fair, but it's a really hard one to model because on the one hand you have huge growth potential from auto loans mixed with lots of risks from partner concentration to regulatory risks and future competition. If they post strong beats on auto loan targets then my price target could easily double given the size of that market.
I also thought their commentary around the buyback plan was spot on. I've listened to a few earnings calls recently where management has been quite unapologetic about increased spending which hasn't been very reassuring in a market environment like this. The fact Upstart acknowledged the recent volatility in their stock and felt confident enough in the price to step in and buy suggests they both have investors backs and believe the stock is trading at an attractive valuation.
Great content btw.
Hi, Lee!
Thanks for sharing TransUnion research, that's helpful! I was referring to Upstart's estimate of $96 billion in originations (Slide 6 in their earnings presentation, https://ir.upstart.com/static-files/41587412-8d25-44f6-a79c-bc2ed0d1c7fe). The personal loans market is difficult to size, as such loans come in all shapes and forms (installment, payday, BNPL, etc) and there are different obligations towards reporting.
I haven't heard company management ever mentioning international expansion. They spoke about small-dollar loans, SME lending, and mortgages, and this pipeline stretched at least to 2023, so don't think international expansion is in the works.
I have experience of bringing consumer lenders to new markets, and should say it always felt like starting from scratch:) Yes, you have the technology, but you have zero data for scoring models, zero brand recognition, and quite often have to adjust your processes significantly (servicing, collection) to local specifics.
I honestly have no idea, where the stock price will be short-term. I am an investor, and my thinking is that as they expand into new subsegments (auto, mortgage, SME), they will start chipping off the market cap from legacy players (i.e. Ally Financial, Rocket Companies). However, lending is a hard and slow business and success in one segment does not guarantee success in another.
...and on the buyback -> yes, that was a very bold statement by Upstart team! :)